Kalshi Kit: this week's markets to watch

Fed decision Wednesday: the September-cut market has traded over $40M this week and sits near 70¢. The press conference is the real event — watch the 'two cuts by December' ladder for the sharper trade.

Weather desk: a heat dome parked over the Midwest has Chicago temperature markets running hot, with daily volumes tripling. The forecast models disagree by four degrees — that disagreement is the trade.

Sports: baseball's trade deadline lands Friday, and 'next team' markets on three All-Stars are moving on every beat-writer tweet.

As always: size small, settle smart, and let the prices tell you when you're wrong.