Kalshi Research studies prediction markets rigorously — how they work, when they are accurate, and what they reveal about the future. We work with academics, analysts, and institutions to advance the science of forecasting.
THEMES
Do market probabilities match how often those outcomes actually happen? We measure it across thousands of resolved markets.
How order flow, liquidity, fees, and trader mix shape price discovery in event-contract markets.
Benchmarking market forecasts against polls, statistical models, and expert judgment.
Who trades, what they know, and how different kinds of participants move prices.
How prices absorb new information and revise probabilities as events unfold.
How accessible, market-based forecasts inform decisions for the public, media, and institutions.
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