How event contracts work: a beginner's guide

Every market on Kalshi asks a single question with a Yes or No answer: Will the Fed cut rates in September? Will it rain in Central Park tomorrow? You buy the side you believe in.

Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and reflect the market's live probability. If Yes trades at 62¢, traders collectively estimate a 62% chance the event happens. Buy Yes at 62¢ and you'll receive $1 per contract if you're right — a 38¢ profit — or lose your 62¢ if you're wrong.

Because you can sell at any time before settlement, you don't have to wait for the outcome. Many traders lock in gains when prices move their way, exactly like taking profit on a stock.

Start small, trade markets you genuinely know something about, and treat the price as information: the market is telling you what everyone else believes — your edge is knowing when everyone else is wrong.