SCOTUS / ONE TIME
Important information: If the Supreme Court, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, rules either that establishing a lack of general applicability under Employment Division v. Smith does not require unfettered discretion or categorical exemptions for identical secular conduct, or that Carson v. Makin can displace Smith without an explicit exclusion of religious people or institutions, then the market resolves to Yes.
Before Aug 1, 2028
Resolves Yes if If the Supreme Court, in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy, rules either that establishing a lack of general applicability under Employment Division v. Smith does not require unfettered discretion or categorical exemptions for identical secular conduct, or that Carson v. Makin can displace Smith without an explicit exclusion of religious people or institutions, then the market resolves to Yes.
Note: this event is directional.
Contracts settle at $1.00 if the outcome resolves Yes, and $0.00 if it resolves No. Positions can be closed any time before expiration at the prevailing market price.
Contracts settle at $1.00 if the outcome resolves Yes, and $0.00 if it resolves No. Positions can be closed any time before expiration at the prevailing market price.