Will CMS announce a major Medicaid payment deferral against another state?

Resolves Yes if the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announces a formal deferral of at least $50 million in federal Medicaid matching funds for claims submitted by a single U.S. state other than California or Minnesota, based on fraud, waste, abuse, or program-integrity concerns before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.